The week in markets: Oct 19–25, 2026

Growth ? · inflation ↑. Growth ?: 3 of 6 measures towards growth, 3 away (each against a month before). Inflation ↑: 3 of 5 measures faster, 1 slower (each against a month before). The S&P 500 −0.5% over the week (from 7,659 to 7,624), the 10-year yield 5.09% → 4.96%, the VIX from 20.0 to 19.5. Over the last 60 trading days the S&P 500 and the 2-year yield moved opposite ways on 57 % of days and the same way on 43 % – neither reached 60 %, so no path dominates now. Most important next: Fed decision (FOMC) (Oct 28).

Put together automatically by hedger from FRED, Yahoo Finance, ČNB and ČSÚ data by the rules described on the Macro page. Not investment advice.

Markets over the week

The S&P 500 −0.5% (from 7,659 to 7,624), the 10-year yield 5.09% → 4.96%, the dollar index −0.2% (from 101.84 to 101.68), the VIX from 20.0 to 19.5.

Over the week: the last close against the last close before Monday Oct 19; for the yield the difference in percentage points.

Best baskets: Cybersecurity +13.4%, Software and SaaS +6.7%, US homebuilding +4.0%. Worst: Power grid and electrification −9.1%, Aircraft and engines −7.9%, Gold and silver miners −7.6%.

Breadth

Of the S&P 500's 503 stocks, 330 rose over the week and 173 fell. 291 (58 %) trade above their 50-day moving average, 279 (55 %) above their 200-day. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) against the regular one (SPY) over the week +1.6 %: the average company led the largest. RSP / SPY →

Where prices say money went

Where prices say money went over 5 trading days: up most Cybersecurity +13.4 %, Software and SaaS +4.9 %, US homebuilding +4.0 %; down most Power grid and electrification −8.0 %, Gold and silver miners −7.6 %, Aircraft and engines −7.1 %. These are price changes, not flows into funds (those are not free). The whole table →

How deep the drop is

The S&P 500 is −2.5 % below its highest close (7,819, Oct 6, 2026), 13 trading days ago. Of three warning signs that often come with a deeper sell-off, 0 hold now. Since Jan 3, 2000 the S&P 500 fell at least 5 % below its highest close 21 times; 8 of those reached 10 % and 4 reached 20 %. Getting back to the high took a median of 54 trading days.

• Fear for the next month is above fear for the next three – doesn't hold. Now the VIX 19.20 and the VIX3M 20.48 (ratio 0.95); holds when the VIX is above the VIX3M (ratio above 1). The VIX is the S&P 500 swing option prices assume over the next 30 days; the VIX3M the same over 3 months. Usually the VIX is lower: the market expects the near term to be calmer than further out. When the VIX rises above the VIX3M, investors pay more for protection now than later – that is how sharp sell-offs look. →
• Companies with weaker credit pay much more to borrow – doesn't hold. Now 3.40 pp (Oct 22, 2026), 13 weeks before 2.77 pp (Jul 23, 2026): 0.63 pp higher. Holds when the spread rises at least 1 pp over 13 weeks. The high-yield spread: how many percentage points more than the US government US companies with lower credit ratings pay on their bonds (ICE BofA index, FRED). When lenders quickly ask companies for more, they fear defaults – the bond market often turns before stocks do. →
• Investors retreat from risk everywhere at once – doesn't hold. Now 4 of 6 fell; holds when all of them fall. 6 pairs where the first asset is riskier than the second – such as volatile against calm stocks, small against large firms, copper against gold. We watch whether the ratio of their prices fell over 5 trading days. When all of them fall together, investors are not leaving one corner of the market but risk across the board. →

A count of the past, not a forecast. Where we are in a drop →

The four gauges

• The Fed: the market expects a hike – futures for April 2027 price 4.34 % against today's effective 3.88 %.
• Appetite for risk: over 5 days 4 of 6 pairs of riskier against safer assets fell, 2 rose – retreat from risk.

The economy: growth and inflation

Growth ? · inflation ↑

Growth ?: 3 of 6 measures towards growth, 3 away (each against a month before).

• Non-farm payrolls: 29k (a month before 133k) ↓
• Unemployment rate: 4.2 % (a month before 4.1 %) ↓
• Initial jobless claims (4-week average): 198k (a month before 200k) ↑
• Industrial production (year on year): 2.2 % (a month before 1.6 %) ↑
• Retail sales after inflation (year on year): 2.5 % (a month before 2.1 %) ↑
• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing: 37.8 (a month before 47.4) ↓

Inflation ↑: 3 of 5 measures faster, 1 slower (each against a month before).

• Core CPI (year on year): 2.6 % (a month before 2.4 %) ↑
• Core PCE (year on year): 3.0 % (a month before 3.0 %) =
• Average hourly earnings (year on year): 3.0 % (a month before 3.1 %) ↓
• Producer prices PPI (year on year): 6.3 % (a month before 5.6 %) ↑
• WTI crude oil: 107.89 $ (a month before 97.18 $) ↑

Stocks and rates: Over the last 60 trading days the S&P 500 and the 2-year yield moved opposite ways on 57 % of days and the same way on 43 % – neither reached 60 %, so no path dominates now.

Areas of the economy (the state by the rule shown with each area on the Economy page)

• Inflation – heating up: Core inflation 2.6 % over the year (a month earlier 2.4 %); the Fed's target is 2 %.
• The labour market – firm: Sahm rule (how many points the 3-month average unemployment is above its 12-month low) 0.00 (a month earlier −0.07; from 0.50 it has marked every recession since 1970); jobless claims 198k a week (4 weeks earlier 202k), 0 % above their 6-month low.
• Growth – expanding: The Philadelphia Fed survey averages 35.4 over 3 months (a month earlier 42.2; above zero firms expand); core capital goods orders 14.1 % over the year (a month earlier 13.3 %).
• The consumer – spending: Retail sales 6.3 % over the year (a month earlier 5.6 %), 2.6 % after inflation (before 2.2 %); saving rate 4.1 % (before 4.6 %).
• Liquidity – flat: Fed net liquidity $5,801bn (13 weeks earlier $5,917bn, so −2.0 %).
• Market risk – calm: VIX 19.2 (a week earlier 18.4, 3-month 20.5); high-yield spread 3.40 pp (a year earlier 3.01 pp).

Each measure is compared with its value a month before. ↑ means more than half of the measures with data went up (unemployment and claims: down), ↓ that more than half went the other way; otherwise (e.g. 3 to 3) the direction is unclear. Growth's direction × inflation's gives four states – the same four quadrants 42 Macro or Hedgeye use, and Bridgewater's similar four 'seasons', because each combination acts differently on the Fed's rates and so on stocks, bonds, gold and the dollar.

What moved markets

• Tue Oct 20: Housing starts and permits no figure yet. Reaction: the S&P 500 +0.3%, the 2-year yield 4.77% → 4.79%; best: Biotech +3.7%, US health insurers +3.1%; worst: Power grid and electrification −2.1%, European defence −1.3%.
• Thu Oct 22: Jobless claims 194k (before 200k) – down from last time. Reaction: the S&P 500 −1.2%, the 2-year yield 4.81% → 4.65%; best: US homebuilding +5.1%, Shops and restaurants +3.5%; worst: AI infrastructure and data centres −8.3%, Power grid and electrification −7.3%.
• Fri Oct 23: Consumer sentiment (Michigan) no figure yet. Reaction: the S&P 500 −0.5%, the 2-year yield —; best: Cybersecurity +5.6%, Oil and gas +3.1%; worst: Aircraft and engines −3.3%, Telecoms −3.0%.

Ranked by influence: the release's weight (inflation, payrolls and the Fed most) × how much the S&P 500 and the 2-year yield moved that day.

Company results

The strongest stock reactions:

• BE (Thu Oct 22): EPS 0.94 USD against 0.68 USD expected (+38.2%), the stock −19.0% (the day after against the day before)
• FIX (Thu Oct 22): EPS 13.91 USD against 12.85 USD expected (+8.2%), the stock −17.2% (the day after against the day before)
• HAS (Tue Oct 20): EPS 2.90 USD against 1.85 USD expected (+56.8%), the stock +15.7% (the day after against the day before)
• 300750.SZ (Tue Oct 20): EPS 4.10 CNY against 4.99 CNY expected (−17.8%), the stock −14.7% (the day after against the day before)
• LRCX (Wed Oct 21): EPS 2.20 USD against 2.18 USD expected (+0.9%), the stock −12.6% (the day after against the day before)
• ALLE (Thu Oct 22): EPS 2.60 USD against 2.51 USD expected (+3.6%), the stock +12.6% (the day after against the day before)
• SPOT (Thu Oct 22): EPS 2.48 USD against 2.81 USD expected (−11.7%), the stock +11.2% (the day after against the day before)
• EFX (Tue Oct 20): EPS 2.26 USD against 2.20 USD expected (+2.7%), the stock +10.7% (the day after against the day before)
• ROP (Thu Oct 22): EPS 5.89 USD against 5.79 USD expected (+1.7%), the stock +10.2% (the day after against the day before)
• LMT (Thu Oct 22): EPS 7.97 USD against 7.52 USD expected (+6.0%), the stock +9.6% (the day after against the day before)

All 96 companies and what they said – this week's results →

What people watched on YouTube

• Who Really Pays for AI Data Centers? – Patrick Boyle, 723,493 views
• 🚨MAJOR BUY: Last EASY Wealth Opportunity For Decades – Tom Nash, 147,225 views
• The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Your Portfolio – Felix Prehn, 436,033 views
• The Last Time Central Banks Did THIS, Gold Went Vertical (Most Aren't Ready) – Felix Prehn, 470,256 views
• Situace ve Francii je šílená... – Lukáš Investor, 72,126 views
• The Biggest Rug Pull in History is Happening Right Now… – Bravos Research, 139,796 views

Videos from the channels on Articles and videos published during the week, by views a day.

The week ahead: Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026

What the market waits for most:

1. Fed decision (FOMC), Wed Oct 28 – The Fed: futures for April 2027 price 4.34 % against today's effective 3.88 % – the market expects a hike.
2. MSFT results, Wed Oct 28 – Its basket, Big Tech, −3.4 % over 5 days. After the last 8 reports the share moved 7.2 % on average. Options expiring 30 Oct price a move of ±5.2 % (how).

3. GOOG results, Wed Oct 28 – After the last 8 reports the share moved 4.9 % on average. Options expiring 30 Oct price a move of ±5.9 % (how).

4. Housing starts and permits, Tue Oct 27 15:00. A figure above the forecast can help stocks (more starts and permits mean people take mortgages and build even at today's rates – the economy copes with them, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.

5. Fed decision (FOMC), Wed Oct 28 19:00. The market prices a hike (the 3-month bill yields 4.22% against the Fed's effective rate of 3.88%). The press conference's tone decides: the surprise is a change in the path, not the decision itself.
6. Jobless claims, Thu Oct 29 13:30 (forecast 198K). Fewer claims than expected can help stocks (fewer claims mean fewer people lose their jobs – they have money to spend, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.
7. Income, spending and PCE, Thu Oct 29 13:30 (forecast 0.3%). Above the forecast would hurt stocks and bonds – why: prices rise faster, so the Fed cuts later, yields rise and stocks get cheaper. Below would help, small caps and growth stocks most – they are the most rate-sensitive.
8. GDP, Thu Oct 29 13:30 (forecast 3.2%). A figure above the forecast can help stocks (faster GDP growth means the economy produces and sells more than the quarter before, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.
9. Earnings: VZ (Mon Oct 26), WELL (Mon Oct 26), DELTA.BK (Mon Oct 26), CDNS (Mon Oct 26), 2359.HK (Mon Oct 26), NUE (Mon Oct 26), PSA (Mon Oct 26), HIG (Mon Oct 26), CINF (Mon Oct 26), BRO (Mon Oct 26), PFG (Mon Oct 26), ARE (Mon Oct 26), V (Tue Oct 27), 000660.KS (Tue Oct 27), KO (Tue Oct 27), HSBC (Tue Oct 27), NVS (Tue Oct 27), RELIANCE.NS (Tue Oct 27), BA (Tue Oct 27), STX (Tue Oct 27), SPGI (Tue Oct 27), GLW (Tue Oct 27), HCA (Tue Oct 27), WM (Tue Oct 27), FCX (Tue Oct 27) and 220 more

The full picture on the Economy page →