Yield curve, 10-year minus 2-year
Now 0.31 (Oct 23, 2026), before 0.31, a year ago 0.53.
How to read it
The classic recession signal. Inversion (short above long) warned in 2022–24. The dangerous phase is re-steepening because short rates fall (the Fed cutting into weakness): it has tended to come just before or at the start of recessions. Steepening because long yields rise is a fiscal or inflation worry instead.
Source: FRED · daily