The economy: growth, inflation, rates and jobs in the US and Czechia
Growth and inflation measure by measure, rates and the Fed, jobs, the consumer and Czechia: inflation, GDP, the ČNB's repo rate and bond yields – each number with its source.
Rates and yields
- Fed funds rate (effective): 3.88 %
- 3-month Treasury bill yield: 4.22 %
- 2-year Treasury yield: 4.65 %
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.96 %
- 30-year Treasury yield: 5.29 %
- Yield curve, 10-year minus 2-year: 0.31
- Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month: 0.78
- 10-year real yield (TIPS): 2.64 %
- 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34 %
- 30-year US mortgage rate: 7.32 %
- Bond volatility (MOVE): 103.31
Inflation
- CPI inflation (year on year): 3.72 %
- Core CPI (year on year): 2.57 %
- Core PCE (year on year): 3.01 %
- Producer prices PPI (year on year): 6.35 %
- Consumers' expected inflation (1 year): 4.60 %
- Average hourly earnings (year on year): 3.02 %
- WTI crude oil: 107.89 $
Jobs
- Non-farm payrolls: 29
- Unemployment rate: 4.20 %
- Sahm rule: 0.00
- Initial jobless claims (4-week average): 198
- Continuing jobless claims: 1,728
- Job openings (JOLTS): 7.1
Activity
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing: 20.9
- Industrial production (year on year): 2.25 %
- Core capital goods orders (year on year): 14.11 %
- Housing starts: 1,221
The consumer
- Retail sales (year on year): 6.29 %
- Retail sales after inflation (year on year): 2.48 %
- Personal saving rate: 4.10 %
- Consumer sentiment (Michigan): 48.1
- Credit card delinquencies: 2.85 %
Liquidity and credit
- Fed net liquidity: 5,801
- Global central bank liquidity: 17,366
- M2 money supply (year on year): 5.66 %
- SOFR minus interest on reserves: 0.00
- High-yield credit spread: 3.40
Markets
- Dollar index (DXY): 101.81
- USD/JPY: 157.02
- Gold: 4,007.90 $
- Copper / gold ratio: 0.0016
- Stock volatility (VIX): 19.5
Czechia
- ČNB repo rate: 3.75 %
- Czech 10-year government bond yield: 5.36 %
- Czech 20-year government bond yield: 5.66 %
- Czech inflation: 2.50 %
- Czech inflation (month on month): 0.00 %
- Czech producer prices: 3.70 %
- Czech GDP (year on year): 1.80 %
- Czech GDP (quarter on quarter): 0.30 %
- Czech unemployment: 3.41 %
- Czech industrial production: 2.63 %
- Czech real wages: 4.30 %
- EUR/CZK: 24.335 Kč
- USD/CZK: 21.741 Kč