The week in markets: what moved stocks, Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026 (S&P 500 −0.6%)

What moved markets, Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026: S&P 500 −0.6%, Nasdaq 100 −2.0%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0% over the week. The economy, company results and the week ahead.

Put together automatically by hedger from FRED, Yahoo Finance, ČNB and ČSÚ data by the rules described on the Macro page. Not investment advice.

Markets over the week

The S&P 500 −0.6% (from 7,624 to 7,580), the 10-year yield 5.00% → 4.98%, the dollar index +0.2% (from 101.68 to 101.88), the VIX from 19.5 to 19.4.

Market Last close Over the week
S&P 500 7,580 −0.6 %
Nasdaq 100 28,385 −2.0 %
Euro Stoxx 50 6,131 +1.0 %
Nikkei 225 63,290 +1.0 %
US 10-year 4.98% −0.02 pp
Czech 10-year 5.36% −0.00 pp
WTI crude 104.12 $ +2.3 %
Gold 3,899 $ −2.6 %
USD/CZK 21.806 Kč +0.6 %
Bitcoin 77,826 $ −2.7 %

Over the week: the last close against the last close before Monday Oct 26; for the yield the difference in percentage points.

Best baskets: US defence +6.9%, Biotech +6.7%, European defence +5.2%. Worst: Software and SaaS −8.9%, Crypto companies −5.7%, Bitcoin −3.4%.

Breadth

Of the S&P 500's 503 stocks, 321 rose over the week and 181 fell. 302 (60 %) trade above their 50-day moving average, 296 (59 %) above their 200-day. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) against the regular one (SPY) over the week +1.4 %: the average company led the largest. RSP / SPY →

Where prices say money went

Where prices say money went over 5 trading days: up most US defence +6.9 %, Biotech +6.7 %, Telecoms +4.1 %; down most Software and SaaS −8.7 %, Crypto companies −5.7 %, bitcoin −4.2 % (BTC-USD). These are price changes, not flows into funds. The whole table →

How deep the drop is

The S&P 500 is −3.1 % below its highest close (7,819, Oct 6, 2026), 18 trading days ago. Of three warning signs that often come with a deeper sell-off, 0 hold now. Since Jan 3, 2000 the S&P 500 fell at least 5 % below its highest close 21 times; 8 of those reached 10 % and 4 reached 20 %. Getting back to the high took a median of 54 trading days.

  • Fear for the next month is above fear for the next three – doesn't hold. Now the VIX 18.77 and the VIX3M 20.78 (ratio 0.93); holds when the VIX is above the VIX3M (ratio above 1). The VIX is the S&P 500 swing option prices assume over the next 30 days; the VIX3M the same over 3 months. Usually the VIX is lower: the market expects the near term to be calmer than further out. When the VIX rises above the VIX3M, investors pay more for protection now than later – that is how sharp sell-offs look. →
  • Companies with weaker credit pay much more to borrow – doesn't hold. Now 3.26 pp (Oct 29, 2026), 13 weeks before 2.84 pp (Jul 30, 2026): 0.42 pp higher. Holds when the spread rises at least 1 pp over 13 weeks. The high-yield spread: how many percentage points more than the US government US companies with lower credit ratings pay on their bonds (ICE BofA index, FRED). When lenders quickly ask companies for more, they fear defaults – the bond market often turns before stocks do. →
  • Investors retreat from risk everywhere at once – doesn't hold. Now 3 of 6 fell; holds when all of them fall. 6 pairs where the first asset is riskier than the second – such as volatile against calm stocks, small against large firms, copper against gold. We watch whether the ratio of their prices fell over 5 trading days. When all of them fall together, investors are not leaving one corner of the market but risk across the board. →

A count of the past, not a forecast. Where we are in a drop →

The four gauges

  • The Fed: the market expects a hike – futures for May 2027 price 4.33 % against today's effective 3.88 %.
  • Stocks and bonds over 5 days: the S&P 500 −0.6 %, long Treasuries (TLT) +0.6 % – growth fear.
  • Appetite for risk: over 5 days 3 of 6 pairs of riskier against safer assets fell, 3 rose – mixed.

The economy: growth and inflation

Growth ? · inflation ↑

Growth ?: 3 of 6 measures towards growth, 3 away (each against a month before).

  • Non-farm payrolls: 29k (a month before 133k) ↓
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2 % (a month before 4.1 %) ↓
  • Initial jobless claims (4-week average): 197k (a month before 200k) ↑
  • Industrial production (year on year): 2.2 % (a month before 1.6 %) ↑
  • Retail sales after inflation (year on year): 2.5 % (a month before 2.1 %) ↑
  • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing: 20.9 (a month before 37.8) ↓

Inflation ↑: 4 of 5 measures faster, 1 slower (each against a month before).

  • Core CPI (year on year): 2.6 % (a month before 2.4 %) ↑
  • Core PCE (year on year): 3.1 % (a month before 3.0 %) ↑
  • Average hourly earnings (year on year): 3.0 % (a month before 3.1 %) ↓
  • Producer prices PPI (year on year): 6.3 % (a month before 5.6 %) ↑
  • WTI crude oil: 103.37 $ (a month before 97.18 $) ↑

Stocks and rates: Over the last 60 trading days the S&P 500 and the 2-year yield moved opposite ways on 58 % of days and the same way on 42 % – neither reached 60 %, so no path dominates now.

Areas of the economy (the state by the rule shown with each area on the Economy page)

  • Inflation – heating up: Core inflation 2.6 % over the year (a month earlier 2.4 %); the Fed's target is 2 %.
  • The labour market – firm: Sahm rule (how many points the 3-month average unemployment is above its 12-month low) 0.00 (a month earlier −0.07; from 0.50 it has marked every recession since 1970); jobless claims 197k a week (4 weeks earlier 200k), 0 % above their 6-month low.
  • Growth – expanding: The Philadelphia Fed survey averages 35.4 over 3 months (a month earlier 42.2; above zero firms expand); core capital goods orders 13.5 % over the year (a month earlier 14.1 %).
  • The consumer – spending: Retail sales 6.3 % over the year (a month earlier 5.6 %), 2.6 % after inflation (before 2.2 %); saving rate 3.8 % (before 4.0 %).
  • Liquidity – flat: Fed net liquidity $5,746bn (13 weeks earlier $5,825bn, so −1.4 %).
  • Market risk – calm: VIX 18.8 (a week earlier 18.4, 3-month 20.8); high-yield spread 3.26 pp (a year earlier 2.76 pp).

Each measure is compared with its value a month before. ↑ means more than half of the measures with data went up (unemployment and claims: down), ↓ that more than half went the other way; otherwise (e.g. 3 to 3) the direction is unclear. Growth's direction × inflation's gives four states – the same four quadrants 42 Macro or Hedgeye use, and Bridgewater's similar four 'seasons', because each combination acts differently on the Fed's rates and so on stocks, bonds, gold and the dollar.

What moved markets

Ranked by influence: the release's weight (inflation, payrolls and the Fed most) × how much the S&P 500 and the 2-year yield moved that day.

Company results

The strongest stock reactions:

  • RDDT (Thu Oct 29): EPS 1.40 USD against 1.33 USD expected (+5.3%), the stock −31.9% (the day after against the day before)
  • INTC (Thu Oct 29): EPS 0.52 USD against 0.40 USD expected (+30.0%), the stock −31.2% (the day after against the day before)
  • NOW (Wed Oct 28): EPS 1.00 USD against 1.02 USD expected (−2.0%), the stock −29.1% (the day after against the day before)
  • FTNT (Wed Oct 28): EPS 0.91 USD against 0.86 USD expected (+5.8%), the stock −24.8% (the day after against the day before)
  • FFIV (Tue Oct 27): EPS 4.42 USD against 4.26 USD expected (+3.8%), the stock −20.8% (the day after against the day before)
  • TWLO (Thu Oct 29): EPS 1.65 USD against 1.47 USD expected (+12.2%), the stock −19.2% (the day after against the day before)
  • SOFI (Tue Oct 27): EPS 0.18 USD against 0.17 USD expected (+5.9%), the stock +18.5% (the day after against the day before)
  • XYL (Tue Oct 27): EPS 1.44 USD against 1.45 USD expected (−0.7%), the stock −18.5% (the day after against the day before)
  • ILMN (Thu Oct 29): EPS 1.44 USD against 1.36 USD expected (+5.9%), the stock −18.3% (the day after against the day before)
  • CSGP (Tue Oct 27): EPS 0.38 USD against 0.34 USD expected (+11.8%), the stock −18.3% (the day after against the day before)

All 284 companies and what they said – this week's results →

What people watched on YouTube

Videos from the channels on Articles and videos published during the week, by views a day.

The week ahead: Nov 2–8, 2026

What the market waits for most:

  1. Payrolls and unemployment, Fri Nov 6 – The economy: 3 of 6 growth measures moved towards growth from the month before. The Fed: futures for May 2027 price 4.33 % against today's effective 3.88 % – the market expects a hike.
  2. AAPL results, Mon Nov 2 – Its basket, Big Tech, −3.3 % over 5 days. After the last 8 reports the share moved 3.1 % on average. Options expiring 4 Nov price a move of ±4.3 % (how).

  3. 2222.SR results, Tue Nov 3 – After the last 8 reports the share moved 1.4 % on average.

  4. JOLTS job openings, Tue Nov 3 16:00 (forecast 7.11M). A figure above the forecast can help stocks (more openings mean firms hunt for staff and have to raise wages, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.

  5. Jobless claims, Thu Nov 5 14:30 (forecast 197K). Fewer claims than expected can help stocks (fewer claims mean fewer people lose their jobs – they have money to spend, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.
  6. Payrolls and unemployment, Fri Nov 6 14:30 (forecast 63K). A figure above the forecast can help stocks (more jobs mean firms are hiring, people have money to spend and wages rise, firms earn more) or hurt them (the Fed then cuts later). Stocks and the 2-year yield don't move mostly one way now, so neither path dominates.
  7. Earnings: AAPL (Mon Nov 2), PLTR (Mon Nov 2), VRTX (Mon Nov 2), MAR (Mon Nov 2), WMB (Mon Nov 2), WBC.AX (Mon Nov 2), FANG (Mon Nov 2), O (Mon Nov 2), ETR (Mon Nov 2), IDXX (Mon Nov 2), EL (Mon Nov 2), PEG (Mon Nov 2), ON (Mon Nov 2), FOX (Mon Nov 2), L (Mon Nov 2), SBAC (Mon Nov 2), DOC (Mon Nov 2), UDR (Mon Nov 2), CLX (Mon Nov 2), FOXA (Mon Nov 2), GRAB (Mon Nov 2), 2222.SR (Tue Nov 3), AMD (Tue Nov 3), AMGN (Tue Nov 3), ANET (Tue Nov 3) and 177 more

The full picture on the Economy page →

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